Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.150902 2.281972 2.420259 2.577608 2.752400 2.941443 3.162490
2025-08-24 1.938764 2.116014 2.312125 2.547188 2.824005 3.143162 3.544300
2025-08-31 1.818906 2.023606 2.257609 2.548663 2.906502 3.339870 3.917270
2025-09-07 1.736128 1.961111 2.225139 2.563705 2.995442 3.541339 4.308466
2025-09-14 1.643582 1.877677 2.157862 2.525630 3.008218 3.639980 4.568154
2025-09-21 1.563647 1.803158 2.094576 2.484733 3.009518 3.717957 4.801877
2025-09-28 1.491253 1.733148 2.031554 2.437848 2.996146 3.770534 4.999773
2025-10-05 1.463324 1.716735 2.034610 2.476450 3.100014 3.995375 5.487136
2025-10-12 1.438858 1.702801 2.039094 2.515779 3.206084 4.231778 6.027534
2025-10-19 1.413394 1.685846 2.037925 2.546054 3.299848 4.457180 6.585471
2025-10-26 1.374640 1.649436 2.008406 2.533746 3.327962 4.579793 6.977361
2025-11-02 1.338725 1.615158 1.979883 2.520605 3.352786 4.697908 7.379568
2025-11-09 1.298934 1.574810 1.942057 2.492922 3.354631 4.780436 7.733836
2025-11-16 1.261337 1.536098 1.904882 2.464102 3.352386 4.855374 8.087776
2025-11-23 1.236104 1.513217 1.888739 2.465499 3.398474 5.020299 8.675146
2025-11-30 1.216567 1.497328 1.881596 2.479746 3.466204 5.231865 9.424688
2025-12-07 1.182979 1.460771 1.843298 2.443679 3.445821 5.273108 9.763224
2025-12-14 1.150470 1.424755 1.804499 2.404918 3.418044 5.296772 10.062617
2025-12-21 1.117990 1.387892 1.763261 2.360456 3.377435 5.290741 10.281288
2025-12-28 1.110387 1.385856 1.772828 2.397065 3.482336 5.592847 11.472757
2026-01-04 1.103293 1.384196 1.782686 2.434345 3.591017 5.917944 12.876023
2026-01-11 1.094168 1.379252 1.787301 2.463028 3.685827 6.226615 14.382006
2026-01-18 1.074985 1.359186 1.768314 2.451368 3.703181 6.360995 15.323099